Local security conflict

Recent clashes in northern Syria have intensified, marking the most violent fighting since the March 2020 ceasefire, which was negotiated with the involvement of Russia and Turkey. On November 27, opposition forces, including Islamist groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched an offensive in the Aleppo and Idlib regions. By November 28, the rebels had captured several strategic areas, including the 46th Brigade Base, and conducted precision strikes on Syrian military assets. They declared the capture of Aleppo, aiming to "liberate" the city from the government’s forces.
The recent flare-up follows ongoing instability in Idlib, the last major opposition stronghold in Syria. Since 2017, the region has been part of a de-escalation zone under the Astana peace process, involving Russia, Turkey, and Iran. Despite efforts to reduce hostilities, violations of ceasefires and the influence of radical groups like HTS have complicated peace talks. Turkey, concerned about a refugee crisis, has increased its military presence in Idlib, sometimes clashing with Syrian forces. The humanitarian situation has worsened, contributing to radicalization and displacement.
The conflict’s intensification is due to competing geopolitical interests, including the control of strategic regions, as well as the radicalization of opposition forces and Syria's internal challenges. A resolution requires international collaboration, dialogue among stakeholders, and a political agreement that balances the interests of various groups. Without compromise, the situation risks further destabilization.